Author: Ashfaq Hussain Shah

“We must remember that while the masses are on one side, there is also an entrenched vested interest that has been created through years of dictatorship or subjugation and these people are waiting to hit out at every single opportunity … through several different ways … with intrigue and conspiracy … [and] by violent means – beheadings, car bombs, assassination” writes Benazir Bhutto in her book Whither Pakistan: Dictatorship or Democracy? (p. 175).

Benazir herself became victim of an assassination bid on December 27, 2007. The revenge was taken by the people by propping up democracy through their electoral verdict. Now, the PPP is the leading party in the national politics. Nevertheless, waiting in the wings are the groups having vested interests in the dictatorial system.

Benazir was cognizant of the sinister approach of these groups – diverse and disparate apparently but united underneath. That was why; perhaps, she advocated transition rather than transformation to democracy. She was of the view that during gradual replacement of the military hegemony with the civilian representation, it was better to identify and neutralize these groups. Assassination of Benazir was an attempt to taper off the distinction between transition and transformation. Before the transformation stage could take roots, her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, took hold of the situation and besought peace which was duly awarded. Asif continued mission of Benazir and materialized the concept of transition to democracy. Thereafter, Asif can be found busy in installing a government based on national consensus.

It seems that in due process the major problem which is being faced by Asif is how to embrace the MQM in the folds of the government of national unity. Asif even disregarded the reservations of the PML-N – the main ally of the PPP at the national level – in this regard. Sometimes, it seems that the MQM is asking for a role bigger than its size and stature. Apparently, the MQM has one main advantage: it functions in the economic hub of the country, Karachi. That is why; outside Karachi, the MQM is viewed as a party which perhaps blackmails the central government. During the past eight years, another perception has been tagged to the MQM: it works at the behest of the President General (retired) Pervaiz Musharraf. It is relevant to the fact that a question haunts the Pakistanis in general that when Musharraf’s allies face problem anywhere in the country, why does mayhem erupt in Karachi which is then pinpointed by no one else but Musharraf himself?

The gory incident on May 12, 2007, tarnished the reputation of none other than the MQM, as the accusing fingers from the rest of the country were raised at the MQM. Outside of Karachi, its offices were closed forcefully; the office-bearers either fled or renounced membership of the MQM. The reaction from the north of the country was not only due to the perception the MQM had garnered but it was also because of the statement of Musharraf in which he condoned the incident and, somehow, appreciated the role of the perpetrators of the atrocities. Now, the incident on April 9, 2008, was a microcosm of the events happened on May 12, 2007, and along with that again came the statement of Musharraf, before he left for China, condoning the incident but declaring it a reaction to the maltreatment meted out to his allies, Dr Arbab Rahim and Dr Sher Afgan.

Manhandling of both Arbab and Afgan is condemnable but equally important is the realization of the fact that there still exists hatred in the society against the symbols of the former government which was patronized by Musharraf. It implies that people were actually aspiring for transformation rather than transition to democracy.

Still not decipherable is the criteria which Musharraf applies to fathom the depth of his popularity in the country. Moreover, it is Musharraf who is in need of endorsement of his November-3 PCO through a constitutional amendment by the incumbent parliament. The statement of Musharraf regarding the April-9 incident in Karachi has put Asif in trouble as to how to offer Musharraf a face-saving and let him continue as an unbiased President. Further, such statements of Musharraf are bound to bring the MQM into the limelight of suspicion, besides offering the PML-N a chance to disparage the PPP-MQM rapprochement.

Owing to such statements of Musharraf, some people may be dreaming of a possibility of invocation of 58-2b to dissolve the Parliament thereby offering them again a niche to survive. Nonetheless, options for Musharraf to stay in the presidency have already shrunk but it is not yet comprehensible how the MQM will withstand the label of a pro-Musharraf party in the years to come. Further, it is also a general perception that the MQM survived in the February-18 elections because of its ethnic tinge; otherwise, it would have met the fate of the PML-Q which has virtually devastated its political future by siding with Musharraf.

Taken collectively, the ethnic streak encompassing its pro-Musharraf stance makes the MQM eccentric and misfit in the current political dispensation. The MQM is yet to shed the impression of being a brain child of the late General Zia ul Haq. Moreover, it is not only the appointment of Dr Shoaib Saddal as the Inspector General Police of Sind but the gloomy future of Ishrat ul Ibad as the Governor of Sind also at the heart of the decision of the MQM to sit in the opposition benches, both in the province and in the centre. Whenever Gwadar develops as an alternative port, the leverage position of the MQM is bound to reduce significantly.

It is yet to be seen whether or not the MQM promotes itself from the position of an ethnic and pro-dictator party to a truly democratic party which is not waiting in the wings but holds democratic credentials to survive.

Ashfaq H.Shah is a worker of PPP-Benazir. By profession he is a Chartered Accountant practising under Shah & Co. Ltd, Glasgow and he can be contacted at ashfaqhussain_shah@yahoo.com

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